Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
It has become more clear that there is some sort of split within the conservative side of the Court about whether to overrule Roe dramatically or to eat away at it by pieces. Alito wants to do the former. Roberts wants to do the latter. Alito would not have been drafting a majority opinion if Roberts were in the majority, so it appears that in February, Alito had five votes, so presumably Roberts was trying to win at least one, maybe most likely Kavanagh, back. The best guess is that the draft was leaked by Alito or someone close to him to try to mobilize pressure on the five to stick with his approach.
Or maybe this. |
So it's Barret who's the other possible swing vote with Kavanagh? I read the original story (TPM was subscription walled) and the author so stated as though it were an obvious fact, but he never explained why. I'd think she'd be one of the definite votes for Alito's opinion. I wonder why she's considered a swing and not Gorsuch.
If I had to bet, I'd lean toward a liberal employee of the Court having done this. If you're a conservative and you do a cost/benefit analysis, keeping it quiet seems the safer route. Why potentially imperil the win?
But then again... If you're a hyper-right-wing(nut) SCOTUS employee and you think Roberts is close to breaking the 5-4 majority for striking down
Roe, maybe you're pretty sure Roberts will prevail and feel like you have to throw the Hail Mary. Seen from that angle, the leak could be a desperation move, and we're all worried about adoption of a crazy opinion that would otherwise never have seen the light of day. One can hope.
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