Quote:
Originally posted by bilmore
I'm assuming you meant, now, with Bush in charge. I see Bush as the kind of person who will see that we have treaty obligations to do so, and so will do so. But, it might well stop with a few big boats parked next to T, and some overflights while people talk. Then, having technically complied with the treaty, we'd move on to pure diplomacy. But, I can't see Bush just ignoring the obligation. And I bet China would be pragmatic enough to understand exactly what Bush had to do, and accept it without escalation.
So, it's cynical, but I'm more optimistic that it would turn out okay in the end (unless you live in Taiwan, of course.)
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I think China recognizes everything you say, and so is pragmatic enough not to invade in the first place. So, if China were to invade, it would be for one of two reasons, I think. (1) the pragmatism that is stopping them now has weakened or vanished, or (2) they have for some reason come to doubt the US resolve. If it's (2), then I think your outlook is right -- we respond militarily, demonstrating that their analysis was wrong, and things calm down. If it's (1), things could quickly get out of hand.
