Bad_Rich_Chic |
05-31-2005 04:23 PM |
Thoughts on the No Vote?
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Originally posted by Spanky
I believe this is just a speed bump on the road to European unity. The polling showed that most of the French are for a Constitution, but it just needs to be rewritten.
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I disagree. The constitution can't be rewritten in any way more favorable to France (since any future renegotiation would include the new eastern European countries). France completely shot its wad getting the constitution into the condition it was in already. (And a sorry-ass condition it was, too.)
Then again, I think the EU was effectively dead as a potential unified political entity when they admitted Britain. It is now in French interests to kill it as an economic entity as well, since all future developments will be contrary to its interests (reduction of subsidies and further opening of markets). They are well on their way to doing this (see: the destruction of the Maastricht criteria).
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I think they are worried by two things. 1) The union forcing a neo-liberal (as they like to say "Anglo") economic system. Which will make them too much like the United States (God forbid) and flood their country with cheap labour destroying their social safety net. 2) Turkey - since most French envision a much tighter union that goes beyond just Economics they don't want Turkey in. The British, who see a loose European confederation, don't mind Turkey so much.
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I agree with (1), but their social net is pretty fucked anyway in the long term since it structurally entrenches increasing unemployment. I think (2) is a superficial concern (though Americans certainly underestimate the zenophobia of Europe). I think the rejection of "Europe" is much deeper than details of the constitution or immigration concerns.
I think the real underlying concern is that, in an expanded Europe, France can't steer policy (foreign, internal, regulatory or economic). The French have long fancied the EU as the tool by which they will reestablish their role as a real global power (with the oomph of a bunch of other contries quietly following their lead). There's no longer a chance in hell for that, and so the EU is now something that frustrates the exercise of French power rather than magnifying it. Why would they vote to further entrench that situation?
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Europe needs to unify it is even going to have half a chance to keep up with the US in the near future, and China and India in the far flung future. At a certain point Economic unity also requires social integration (especially for socialist leaning nations).
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I agree 100%. But it will never happen. Therefore Europe is destined for global irrelevance, for a generation or so at least.
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