LessinSF |
03-30-2005 07:03 PM |
Question for the Readers
I have been working on a question and wonder whether anyone else has too, and figured y'all were just the losers to ask:
Whether People Should Have Children (or How To Minimize The Risk of Global Nuclear/Biological Disaster)
The Question is - Should people even bother having children or should they instead spend their time and money enjoying the rise and fall of civilization and leave a well-used corpse?
Inherent in the Question is the presumption is that, in a quantum world, anything that can happen, will happen. Nuclear devices exist, so they will be set off. Biologic plagues exist, so they will be released. We can effectively end civilzation as we know it, so we will. There is no putting technology back in the bottle - the only unknown is when such events will occur.
The Question then becomes whether we can limit the probability that global destruction occurs to an acceptably low level that people should continue to have children, and, if so, how can we do so?
I see it as two curves. The first is the Knowledge/Ability curve - the increasing knowledge about weapons of mass destruction combined with the increasing ability to use and deliver them around the globe. The second is the Desire/Violence curve - the amount of people who would use such weapons if they could.
Obviously, we want to: (1) limit the Ability curve (because I don't see us limiting the Knowledge curve), and entities like the TSA and the CIA are presuambly trying to do so; and (2) decrease the Desire/Violence curve, and various people are trying to do so in different ways. And we have the bazillions of dollars we are spending on Iraq, Afganistan, the TSA, CIA, NSA, etc. to do it.
But are we applying our best efforts to determine what factors are most important, most effective, and most efficient to address, or are we just winging it? Have we rigorously analyzed whether our use of the money is cost-efficient to our goal? Would the money be better spent in outright grants to impoverished countries? Missile-defense? Education? Sniffing technology? Satellites? Communication monitoring? Internet monitoring? Alphabet soup agencies? Biochemical defenses? Pharmaceutical development? Bunkers? Outreach groups? Assassination of extremists and wackos? Destruction of WMDs?
If we haven't done this analysis, shouldn't we? We have super-fucking-Cray computers that should be able to analyze what efforts work best. They should be able to compare whether neo-cons, religious wingnuts, bleeding hearts, loudmouth drunks in bars, bloggers, bookies, astrologists or Euroweenies high on Extasy while listening to the Chemical Brothers have the statistically best method to fight global disaster, and, whether, given the probabilities, we should bother having kids.
Perhaps more importantly (and finally), if we haven't done this analysis purely because I am the first moron to think of it, where do I publish?
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